FOREX ROLLER COASTER

Lately the Foreign Exchange market has made a roller coaster ride seem boring.

Currency pairs stay in 5 hour quiet lulls, and then either blast off, or drops off a cliff. Economic news, commodity prices, or Central Banker jawboning may cause prices to move at a 90 degree angle and change the global capital flows in mere minutes. I keep trying to write some commentary and by the time I am finished my outline, bigger and broader news hits the market. This week is going to be no different.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two government sponsored entities (GSE’s) that back the majority of US home mortgages are currently going thru solvency questions. These two entities provide an enormous amount of liquidity to the mortgage market and without them, mortgage rates would be significantly higher. Over the weekend, the US Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department assured investors that the US Government is backing the two GSE’s and stands ready to even buy equity stakes in Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae!!! At what point does the US Government exhaust its ability to help the ailing mortgage companies, and other financial institutions? Lets think of the currency implications for all the “bailing out” that the Fed and Treasury have done lately………
Every time the US Fed announces that they will “open up the window” to another type of financial institution, what the Fed is really saying is, “We will take on your securities and lend you cash that you can then use to continue your business activities.” The Fed is effectively both printing money (a job formally reserved for the US Mint), and spending your tax dollars on securities that the big financial institutions do not want to hold anymore. What happens when you print too much money? You get two effects: 1) a devaluation of the currency (falling US Dollar), and 2) Inflation.

The Federal Government needs to clarify their supposed strong dollar policy with real obtainable goals, not just their usual stance of jawboning and looking like a paper tiger. Unfortunately, we do not see this coming in the near future, just more verbal confirmation of a “strong dollar policy”. That being said, all is not lost for the US Dollar…..
For many years, most EUR bulls have used the prospects of higher interest rates to justify the currency’s rally. We believe this is coming to an end!!! The slowdown in the Eurozone economies will cause the interest rate differential between the US and Eurozone to close in the coming year thru expected ECB rate cuts. Our opinion is going against prevailing market sentiment which is aligned with the ECB’s Trichet continued hawkish stance on inflation. But we believe that the Euro currency does not have too much higher to climb verse the US dollar. We are hoping to see some sign of US Dollar bulls capitulation in coming weeks as our market sentiment signal that it is time to put on our long-term short EUR/USD position. Note we do not have a hard target level, just searching for signs of capitulation in the market

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