Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Personal Opinion in Forex Trading for Beginner Forex Traders

Forex trading requires own opinion, cannot just rely on the Forex experts.

We do not mean that we should not believe in the Forex experts. To the Forex expert's opinion, we should have an objective manner. Forex expert is also a human being, they could also make mistake. We can refer to the Forex expert's opinions but we must also go through own analysis. This issue is very important to beginners of Forex trading. A lot of people believe in the Forex expert's opinions extremely. Today if a Forex expert said that, some currency technical chart is extremely good and it must rise, how could a Forex trader miss this opportunity of making money? Hurries to buy. After buying it, the Forex trader also saw another Forex expert said the fundamental analysis of this currency is not strong, the probability of falling is very high. Since this Forex expert does not favor this currency, so it will not be wrong, to prevent any lost Forex traders will often settle all the positions. This kind of Forex trader has no personal opinion, basically those who believe in the Forex experts extremely will only lost money in the end. Forex traders can be divided into 2 groups. The first group is the beginner of the Forex market. This group of Forex traders know nothing about both technical and fundamental analysis, so the probability of making profit is smaller, without any own opinion, the only choice is to follow the expert's opinions blindly.

The second group of Forex traders have consist knowledge of both fundamental and technical analysis for period of time. But as a result of a few big faults, they have made a very big lost, and causes the minds of these Forex traders are often confuse. Even though, after several repeated analysis, in the end they decided to follow the Forex expert's opinions. It doesn’t not mean that we should not listen to the Forex experts, the most important thing is that we also must have our own opinions. Of course, such opinions do not come automatically. Otherwise such opinion is blind, a Forex trader must spend time and effort to slowly develop a suitable analysis method and skills. If not, such opinion is blind and it would be much more dangerous to follow expert's opinion. Some people argued that they just entered the foreign exchange market, and know nothing about the fundamental and technical analysis, without any personal analysis method and skills, what should they do? Here, we do not oppose such Forex traders to follow the Forex expert's opinions. Beginner Forex trader should choose a right Forex expert and do not ever change the Forex experts often, or else will loss money in the end. Every Forex expert has different opinions, some trade short term, some trade long term. No matter his or her suggestion is correct or is wrong, at long as his or her analysis mentality is coherent at most, even sometimes it is wrong, but the overall probability of profit making is still bigger.

For instance, follows the expert A to say today may buy up some kind of currency, his trading mentality is long term based, supposes his judgment analysis is correct, and then you buy up this kind of currency to make a long term transaction. If all in a sudden you follow the expert B's opinion to trade, saying the currency shall fall, in fact he is the short term based trader, any rise currency can fall, therefore the expert said the trend will fall is also correct. If you follow the expert B's suggestion, and settle the position to stop loss. Such trading skill in the end is totally wrong.

Since two experts said have not been all wrong, why did we loss money? This is the result of mentality transaction. Since a Forex trader followed the expert A's suggestion, bought up for long term, then the trading skill should be long term, if all in a sudden a Forex trader listened to expert B, and convert to short term trading, in the end losing money is no surprise.


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