How to Read And Interpret A Weekly Economic Calendar: International Trade

Measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact all the financial markets, but especially the foreign exchange value of the dollar. Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services here and
the US exports show the demand for US goods in overseas countries. The dollar can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United States, since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies. This report gives a breakdown of US trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally.

For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.

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EUR/USD Fluctuations Continue

EUR/USD retraced back to 1.4200 levels today after some very disappointing housing data came out in U.S. Overall situation continues to remain uncertain with the EUR/USD ranging between 1.4050 and 1.4250. It now formed a clear plateau pattern on the daily chart marking some major break in the Euro vs. Dollar struggle.

Housing report for September showed a further downfall in this economics sector with the decrease in both housing starts and building permits numbers exceeding pessimistic market forecasts. There were 1,191k housing starts (against 1,285k expected) and 1,226k new building permits (against 1,300k expected) this September.

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Australian Dollar Forecast: OPEC Expected to Announce Record Oil Output Cut

The Australian dollar faces heavy event risk on Monday from the minutes of the RBA’s latest meeting. The bigger news, though, may be from an anticipated cut in output by OPEC on Wednesday, which leaves bullish potential open for crude oil. What impact will this news have on commodity dollars like the Australian dollar?

On December 15 at 19:30 ET, the Australian dollar will face the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australian’s December meeting, when they slashed rates by 100 basis points to 4.50%. Following that announcement, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said that monetary policy was now expansionary, suggesting that they may stop cutting rates aggressively in the near-term. If the RBA meeting minutes reiterate this sentiment, the Australian dollar could actually gain.

There is another announcement traders should be watching this week: Wednesday’s meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). As a commodity currency, the Australian dollar holds a solid correlation with oil (0.74 over the past 20 days). Since OPEC is anticipated to announce a sharp cut in production, a surge in oil could subsequently trigger a jump in the Australian dollar as well. Indeed, OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri said on Monday that they “have to act…we see a very sizeable reduction.” As it stands, OPEC is anticipated to cut output by a record 2 million barrels per day (bpd), versus the biggest cut thus far in April 1999 of 1.716 million bpd.

According to Technical Strategist Jamie Saettele, the decline in crude oil was stretched and the 37.80 - 40 zone “should provide the support needed to stage a rally back to at least 56 and maybe 72. 5 waves appear complete at 40.50 and minor resistance is at the November 28 high at 55.98. Over the next several weeks, crude should reach more significant resistance in the 66.50 (Fibonacci)-72.37 area.” Given the severity of the cut expected by OPEC, there is strong fundamental support for Jamie’s technical argument.


Meanwhile, AUD/USD is at a crossroads, as major resistance looms above where we have two key trendlines intersecting at 0.6750. If the pair manages to break this resistance point, price is likely to target the November highs near 0.7000. However, if the OPEC decision is combined with broad US dollar weakness, AUD/USD could rally toward the 50% fib of 0.8524-0.6007 at 0.7265/75.

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Dollar rises against the yen in night trading

Dollar rises against the yen in night trading
Dollar rises versus the yen in trading late Friday night
The dollar rose against the Japanese yen late Friday night. The greenback gained to 91.15 yen from the 91.12 yen it bought in late afternoon trading.

New Zealand Dollar To Hold Bearish Bias On Curbed Risk Appetite
The New Zealand dollar turned a blind eye to the event risks scheduled for the week as the higher-yielding currency bounced back to pick up 200+ pips against the greenback. However, deteriorating fundamentals paired with dovish commentary by RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard suggests that the central bank will continue to ease policy throughout 2009, which is likely to spur increased selling pressures for the kiwi going forward.

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