Russia can affect emerging markets which it may be forced to trade with,
such as India, China, and Brazil. Russian oil could help a growing Chinese economy and decrease Russia’s dependence on European customers. In a complex environment a static forecast is not possible, but it is clear any instability or even the perception of instability close to Europe will be negative for the Euro. Elite E Services believes the next bubble to pop will be the Euro bubble.
Long term, this is a buying opportunity for hard commodities such as Wheat, Swiss Francs, Oil, and Gold. Whatever happens in this war, the supply side in the Oil market is controlled by unfriendly countries such as Venezuela and Iran. If Russia is now added to the list of unfriendly countries, we can expect Oil to increase long term, as Russia will use this as a bargaining chip in any negotiations.
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Monday, January 5, 2009
Russia emerging market
EES - What Russian war means for the Euro
FX is extremely sensitive to politics, because a shift in a domestic political system can be directly connected to a currency’s value.
For example, the Chinese government announcement that the Yuan would float, albeit a ‘soft peg’ to the USD, shattered the relationship between a previously pegged Yuan and the USD. Many watching the situation in Georgia are unaware how this impacts them, and how it impacts FX. Also, this war, like many wars, is an information war, and the media spin leaves viewers with a less than accurate picture of reality.
The strength of the Euro over the past 5 years has been in part, not European strength as much as American weakness. A combination of economic factors in the US has made investors fear the USD and purchase non-USD based assets in Euros and other foreign currencies. Also, the Fed has been lowering US interest rates to a finally negative real interest rate.
The recent strength in the USD is not USD strength per se, but Euro weakness. The fear is that Europe will be involved in a war with Russia, and energy will be involved. Russia supplies 25% of the EU’s energy needs and over 50% to many Eastern European states , and the EU is Russia’s largest trading partner, totaling $285 Billion .
Immediately after the 4% drop in the Euro in 2 days, Bank of America issued a warning to its’ customers summarizing the situation that, although the USD is showing signs of recovery, a war in Europe does not solve the fundamentally flawed US economy, and they expect further USD weakness .
Russia’s involvement in Europe is not only energy. The US has planned military bases in many eastern-bloc countries, one of which has been signed during the crisis in Georgia .
One problem with Europeans is they cannot agree. This is what makes Europe charming and culture-rich but politically complex. USA is a ‘melting-pot’ which has become a mono-culture based on corporatism, while American’s argue their thinking lies in the same direction. Since the US Civil war, US mono-culture has solidified the mainstream in a view that always agrees on some tenets, this is not the case in Europe. Entry into the EU and the Euro passed referendum in many EU states by thin margins, there are those who would like to revert back to national currencies.
One main difference between the Euro and other currencies: the Euro does not have a government behind it. Individual EU states retain their sovereignty, and those states central banks have essentially no power to influence the Euro directly, except for lobbying the ECB. So the Euro is a designer currency hanging on a thin margin, which could be toppled by a severe energy crisis should the situation with Russia escalate. US involvement in Eastern European countries will only increase the chances of Russia’s will to turn off the lights.
Russia has already quietly begun selling oil in Rubles , and announced the Ruble is fully convertible (since 2006) . While by itself these actions are not market-shattering, combined with the potential conflict in Georgia, and Russia’s aggressive policy to capitalize on their vast wealth in natural resources, a situation is brewing in Europe which can be potentially explosive. Any turmoil can be seen as bad for the Euro, regardless of the actual damage done. The disadvantage of Europe is it’s history: Europe has been involved in wars and currency devaluations. As poor as the US economic numbers are, the US is involved in foreign wars at its leisure, there is no compelling reason the US should be involved in any war.
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Sunday, January 4, 2009
What is traded in the Forex market?
The instrument traded by Forex traders and investors are currency pairs. A currency pair is the exchange rate of one currency over another. The most traded currency pairs are:
EUR/USD: Euro
GBP/USD: Pound
USD/CAD: Canadian dollar
USD/JPY: Yen
USD/CHF: Swiss franc
AUD/USD: Aussie
These currency pairs generate up to 85% of the overall volume generated in the Forex market.
So, for instance, if a trader goes long or buys the Euro, she or he is simultaneously buying the EUR and selling the USD. If the same trader goes short or sells the Aussie, she or he is simultaneously selling the AUD and buying the USD.
The first currency of each currency pair is referred as the base currency, while second currency is referred as the counter or quote currency.
Each currency pair is expressed in units of the counter currency needed to get one unit of the base currency.
If the price or quote of the EUR/USD is 1.2545, it means that 1.2545 US dollars are needed to get one EUR.
Bid/Ask Spread
All currency pairs are commonly quoted with a bid and ask price. The bid (always lower than the ask) is the price your broker is willing to buy at, thus the trader should sell at this price. The ask is the price your broker is willing to sell at, thus the trader should buy at this price.
EUR/USD 1.2545/48 or 1.2545/8
The bid price is 1.2545
The ask price is 1.2548
A Pip
A pip is the minimum incremental move a currency pair can make. Pip stands for price interest point. A move in the EUR/USD from 1.2545 to 1.2560 equals 15 pips. And a move in the USD/JPY from 112.05 to 113.10 equals 105 pips.
Margin Trading (leverage)
In contrast with other financial markets where you require the full deposit of the amount traded, in the Forex market you require only a margin deposit. The rest will be granted by your broker.
The leverage provided by some brokers goes up to 400:1. This means that you require only 1/400 or .25% in balance to open a position (plus the floating gains/losses.) Most brokers offer 100:1, where every trader requires 1% in balance to open a position.
The standard lot size in the Forex market is $100,000 USD.
For instance, a trader wants to get long one lot in EUR/USD and he or she is using 100:1 leverage.
To open such position, he or she requires 1% in balance or $1,000 USD.
Of course it is not advisable to open a position with such limited funds in our trading balance. If the trade goes against our trader, the position is to be closed by the broker. This takes us to our next important term.
Margin Call
A margin call occurs when the balance of the trading account falls below the maintenance margin (capital required to open one position, 1% when the leverage used is 100:1, 2% when leverage used is 50:1, and so on.) At this moment, the broker sells off (or buys back in the case of short positions) all your trades, leaving the trader "theoretically" with the maintenance margin.
Most of the time margin calls occur when money management is not properly applied.
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Monday, December 22, 2008
EUR/USD Fluctuations Continue
EUR/USD retraced back to 1.4200 levels today after some very disappointing housing data came out in U.S. Overall situation continues to remain uncertain with the EUR/USD ranging between 1.4050 and 1.4250. It now formed a clear plateau pattern on the daily chart marking some major break in the Euro vs. Dollar struggle.
Housing report for September showed a further downfall in this economics sector with the decrease in both housing starts and building permits numbers exceeding pessimistic market forecasts. There were 1,191k housing starts (against 1,285k expected) and 1,226k new building permits (against 1,300k expected) this September.
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